Which cognitive bias causes people to judge the likelihood of events by how easily examples come to mind?

• A. Availability Heuristic
• B. Confirmation Bias
• C. Hindsight Bias
• D. Representativeness Heuristic

Answer: (A)

The main idea here is that memory shape probability judgments. The availability heuristic is the tendency to judge how likely or frequent something is based on how easily examples come to mind. If you can quickly recall several sensational stories or vivid incidents, you’ll feel those events are more common than they actually are, even if the base rates don’t support that impression. For example, after hearing about a few dramatic airplane accidents, you might overestimate the danger of flying, simply because such events are easy to recall. This differs from confirmation bias, which is about seeking information that confirms what you already believe; hindsight bias, which is about believing you would have predicted an outcome after it has happened; and the representativeness heuristic, which is about judging probability based on how similar something is to a stereotype or prototype rather than on how often it occurs in reality. So the idea that recall ease drives probability judgments best captures why the answer is the availability heuristic.